Gold Price Discussion

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G'day MrCornford

If you buy Bullion ( currently $1233 US ) your profit or loss at sale is dependent on what
you paid for it and what you sold it for just like any commodity.
If you buy a share in a Gold miner or producer you are buying into their ability to find and produce gold at a good price
Gold being seen as a safe haven for investors , at times of unease in the world , being war , economic pressure ,
drought , etc will see people taking their money out of the equity market and buying gold to avoid losing money in a share market collapse .
The share market being what it is , a delicate balance between fear and greed , tends to oversell when in fear mode and over buy
in greed mode , in other words in fearful times people sell down a company's value to a point where the company is worth more
than their share price reflects ( share price X number of shares on issue V Company's net worth) and the time to but into them , refer article.
IMHO gold price may have bottomed , and many Gold Mining Stocks were undervalued and I started to buy into them from early Dec
as a consequence although gold has risen approx 5 percent some companies like PXG ( Pheonix Gold ) NST ( Northern Star Mines )
DRM ( Doray Minerals ) AQG ( Alacer Gold ) have provided a nice little return of up to 60 percent in 5 weeks.

Very interesting times though , there is a technical resistance level for gold @ US $1230 per oz Troy
IMHO if gold holds above this level it may take off into blue sky territory , if it falls below it could be back down
to $1190 before it try's to break $1230 again. This could provide another buying opportunity but I doubt the Stocks
will get that low again

And that is the fun of the game

Hope this helps

Cheers

what do you use for a charting app ?

i see $ 1320 as potential short term but i dont think time has done enough with the chart , ie it needs more time to run before breaking trend.

I also think that 738 could occur under the wrong influences , and that 5000 will be seen within the next 10 years

have you ever used elliot theory to chart timeframe dynamics as well as price ?

I am not too concerned about predicting gold price patterns until the Russian thing stabilises , Russian sanctions are causing them huge economic pressures and if they are selling more gold to cover debt then the futures markets will mysteriously lead the physical markets around causing price to fluctuate as other global interests create arbitrage and throw salt at somebodies wounds.

 

[MrCornford]

Thank Bacchus! Very informative.

That clears up the idea I had in my head, that you can buy bullion and that there are companies that operating that you can buy stock in. Cheers!

 

[Bacchus]

I am not too concerned about predicting gold price patterns until the Russian thing stabilises , Russian sanctions are causing them huge economic pressures and if they are selling more gold to cover debt then the futures markets will mysteriously lead the physical markets around causing price to fluctuate as other global interests create arbitrage and throw salt at somebodies wounds.

Old dog new tricks , just took an hour trying to work out how to copy and insert a quote , still didn't work

IMHO

The entire Gold price movement is being driven indirectly by the Oil Price or collapse thereof

The Saudis in an effort to keep market share are forcing the price down to $40 bbl or thereabouts
to kill off the multiplying US shale oil producers which produce at about $54 per bbl
Problem being , as well as higher price producers going broke so too are other OPEC countries like Venezuela , and
(along with said sanctions ) sent Russia into depression .
The big question is if Vlad is true to form , how long before he does something to scare the xxxx out of the market and gold to the moon .With that in mind , as you say , predicting Au price movement is very difficult and charts may very well be thrown out the window for the short term. My interest lies mainly in the share market and oversold sectors such as Gold Miners recently /currently and oil producers in the near future IMO , if you like trying to catch a falling knife

That's why I reckon Vlad is the Golden Boy who will determine the gold price short term.

Right or wrong , simply my opinion , and as we know opinions are like assholes.

In the mean time I will enjoy the cheap fuel and go to Dunolly , Tarnagulla and Beechworth via Tibooburra
this April

 

[Piston_Broke]

Gold is still currently in a bear market.
Despite the howling of all the gold "To the moon" prophets.

......caveat emptor.

 

[Metamorphic]

This may be a silly question..

Is buying gold stocks different from having a share in the ownership of gold? (I think I just need it explained)

The only silly questions are the ones you dont ask.

If you buy gold stocks, you are making an investment in the companies that extract it from the ground.

This would mean that you are now exposed to the market for both a capital gain/loss (as share price increases or decreases), but it also enables you to enjoy the benefit of an income producing asset in the form of dividends etc.

If you trade gold as a commodity, you are merely speculating on the movement of gold price, either long or short (up or down)....the beauty here is you can speculate in either direction, as long as your on the right side of price movement, you will profit.

The only way to take physical ownership of gold is to buy bullion.

As others have said, this should be for a more long term scenario in your investment strategy. Gold bullion is an insurance investment against economic downfall.
Dollar bills can be easily printed by governments, but they are just that.....paper that has no real intrinsic value.
Currency valuations must be backed by physical gold reserves in order to preserve their value.
Thats why Hitlers plan was to steal the worlds gold reserves.....Gold is one of the only true stores of wealth.

Get a good floor safe, and bank it up for future price movements in a bullish, upward movement because it will. It may not be tomorrow or next month, or even next year....but it will rise!

Remember, gold is a finite commodity.....there is only so much of it left in the ground that can be economically extracted and it cannot be reproduced.

When its all gone, you better hope you have some in that floor safe!

Regards

 

[Goldtarget]

Technically it can be reproduced. Fun fact it's possible to turn lead to gold using nuclear technology. The *cost* prohibits the profit but can be done. Didn't mean to jump in meta your reasoning and view is very sound.

 

[Metamorphic]

Ah but yes GT, you hit the nail on the head.....if it costs 1oz to make 1 gram, it is economically un-viable and totally useless from an investment or production prospective.

I shall call you the last Alchemist!

Lmao

Warren Buffett once said..."Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

Cheers mate

 

[golddiggerart]

Will be $2500 per ounce within the next year.

 

[Swinging & digging]

Floor safe at home?

Fine print in all home insurance policies says covered for max of a very small amount in cash? They treat gold as cash for insurance purposes.
There are companies that run secure vault storage and insurance for a fee, much safer option.

You can purchase pool allocated gold from a number of bullion dealers, you don,t pay storage, freight or insurance.
Depending on who you go with some are very safe, like the Perth mint which is backed by the WA state Government.

I have my own self managed super fund and purchased gold and silver bullion at a price dip last year in November, Gold at $1330 AUD an ounce, then sold at $1578 AUD
Silver at $19.23 November 2014, then sold at $23.35. I mainly got gold and silver as the AUD was dropping in value and knew the metals would rise, its very hard to pick peaks and falls in any market price?

So i made a small profit, and shall now pay the ATO a portion as per taxation on super fund laws.

I also purchased a parcel of shares in North Star Resources, a WA based gold mining company, got in low and price as done very well over the last 10 months or so.
I keep up to date with all their news and they are progressing into a first class gold producer, they have deposits mapped for the next 10 years of production.

I am making more out of investing in bullion and a mining company in 12 months that what a lifetime of prospecting produced.
Though i still enjoy looking for gold.

 

[Piston_Broke]

Will be $2500 per ounce within the next year.

Why?

 

[Goldtarget]

As soon as I figure out how to harness nuclear energy for free I can sell all the gear and shout every pa member (active) a Jupiter.

Hello asio. .....say what now?

 

[Metamorphic]

Floor safe at home?

Fine print in all home insurance policies says covered for max of a very small amount in cash? They treat gold as cash for insurance purposes.
There are companies that run secure vault storage and insurance for a fee, much safer option.

You can purchase pool allocated gold from a number of bullion dealers, you don,t pay storage, freight or insurance.
Depending on who you go with some are very safe, like the Perth mint which is backed by the WA state Government.

I have my own self managed super fund and purchased gold and silver bullion at a price dip last year in November, Gold at $1330 AUD an ounce, then sold at $1578 AUD
Silver at $19.23 November 2014, then sold at $23.35. I mainly got gold and silver as the AUD was dropping in value and knew the metals would rise, its very hard to pick peaks and falls in any market price?

So i made a small profit, and shall now pay the ATO a portion as per taxation on super fund laws.

I also purchased a parcel of shares in North Star Resources, a WA based gold mining company, got in low and price as done very well over the last 10 months or so.
I keep up to date with all their news and they are progressing into a first class gold producer, they have deposits mapped for the next 10 years of production.

I am making more out of investing in bullion and a mining company in 12 months that what a lifetime of prospecting produced.
Though i still enjoy looking for gold.

But here in lies the main question S&D.....Do you trust your bullion to an external storage facility?

If the shite hits the fan with another serious GFC, will the govt gladly hand your gold stores over to you when you request it?

I doubt it very much.

Your money may feel safe in savings or term deposits in a bank, but if there is a run on the banks in a mass panic during a financial economy collapse, you can rest assured they will close their doors and ATM's, and you may kiss your savings goodbye!

We have already seen this happen in Europe....namely Greece and Spain

Its like storing your computer data on an external server or cloud.....are you 100% sure it can be given back in times of war, natural disaster, global economic collapse etc?

The floor safe is your only insurance in times of critical uncertainty.

Get one thats fireproof, resistant to drilling, oxy-acetylene cutting and explosives!

I researched this topic for a long time, its your only sure fire guarantee of guarding your wealth against total economic disruption. The govt doesnt give 2 hoots about your wealth and would gladly take it from you given the chance.

Call me paranoid if you like, but i prefer to think of it as the 7 P's

Proper Prior Planning, Prevents Piss Poor Performance.

Regards

 

[Big Nugget]

As soon as I figure out how to harness nuclear energy for free I can sell all the gear and shout every pa member (active) a Jupiter.

Hello asio. .....say what now?

Word catcher got ya GT. See that black car parked across the road? 8)

 

[Metamorphic]

Ryan my man, where in the bloody hell have you been mate?

Im personally stoked to see you back at the forum reading the posts!

I was worried you had departed for good.

You were always one of the good guys here mate, and i sincerely am glad your back (i hope) and look forward to your contributions!

Thanks for your like my friend.

Sincerely

Meta

 

[golddiggerart]

Will be $2500 per ounce within the next year.

Why?

Because it is the one commodity that fluctuates with the price of Oil.....They have forecast $10 - $20 a Barrel for oil which means Gold prices should rise...
Also read a piece from Yahoo some time ago predicting it's increase as Oil keeps falling.

 

[thedigger]

Here is a good article on the rigging of the gold price.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...res-markets-paul-craig-roberts-dave-kranzler/

Regards Frank

 

[Heatho]

My theory why gold was bound to drop like a stone was because China was buying so much of the stuff, America owes China about $1Trillion. America is generally a sore loser and wants to keep it's currency as the global reserve currency, China wants it's currency to become the global reserve and are also using a gold standard to back their currency. America will not let this happen in my opinion and will try to financially constrain China. Also China's pushing into the East China Sea and the South China Sea will not be tollerated by the USA and they will be physically restrained also by whatever means possible. The USA is also setting up military bases in strategic places such as Northern Australia in case all hell breaks loose.

There is no one reason why gold is being manipulated and why financial institutions are trying to deny it's use as currency, there are many reasons I think, the main one though is America is setting up China for monumental failure as a global currency. I said this same thing about a year or so ago saying that America is almost guaranteed to manipulate gold into a hot potato that no one wants at China's expense, right now gold, if you bought high, is a toxic investment unless you're a day trader. China's stock markets are crashing also, there are a lot of Chinese losing massive amounts of money. Chinese love to gamble and playing the stock market is no different to playing cards really.

Someone in China also dumped 5 tonnes of gold onto the market a few days ago too which drove the price down further. There are very very devious institutions running America and I seriously think China is biting of way more than it can chew dealing with them. A big war will make huge fortunes for these American institutions, it has in in the past and will again in the future.

Japan is re-arming after nearly 70 years of not being allowed to have a real military, America allowing them to re-arm says that something is bound to happen sooner or later.

This is more a prelude to war than just market manipulation.

Anyway enough waffling from me....... I could be wrong but......

 

[grubstake]

Someone in China also dumped 5 tonnes of gold onto the market a few days ago too which drove the price down further.

That amount was negligible (2014 world production was 2,860 tonnes), and less than $20M value, but the market over-reaction was interesting.

 

[user 1769]

The article is pretty bad, IMO.
Demand for a minted coin is not the same as demand for bullion in general, and individual investor demand for silver and gold bullion coins is a drop in the ocean compared with state and institutional demand (i.e. hedge funds) for large amounts of bullion.
I am not an economist but I'd take what he says with a HUGE grain of salt.

 

[Heatho]

Someone in China also dumped 5 tonnes of gold onto the market a few days ago too which drove the price down further.

That amount was negligible (2014 world production was 2,860 tonnes), and less than $20M value, but the market over-reaction was interesting.

$170 million is the value of 5 tonnes. Was an over reaction but it's still a toxic investment at present.

The 30 day and 200 day moving averages say a lot more about where the price is heading.