Ten years on

[Licking windows]

Hi Phoenix 76
One would hope and pray that such a thing would never be deliberately started by anyone and especially not by a CFA member :N:
I will add that there have been rogue CFA members in our area that have been caught committing these type of callous acts but I cannot comment on if this was or wasnt the case in Marysville as I do not know!
What would be safe to assume is that when the Kilmore East Fire front was at the bottom of Kinglake Mountain devastating Strathewen and parts of St. Andrews thats when there was a wind change from the south, south east causing what was already a huge front into a fire front that was kilometres long 10-20-30 kilometres Im not entirely sure to change direction and race up the mountain through Kinglake / Steels Creek and as far to the north as Flowerdale making its way to places like Murrindindi and Narbethong and was reported to have spotted in or around these areas.causing the fire to make its way to Marysville. This is the general theory on how it traveled to Marysville and surrounding areas and it sort of makes sense given the direction of the wind .

Hi Licking windows

Hear what you are saying mate, but the SW wind change didn't happen until about 6pm. At 6pm the fire was racing in on top of Marysville from the south over Paradise Plains. I fully understand the problem of spotting, seen it too often, but at 6pm the original fire was below Kinglake and actually didn't make it to Flowerdale until just after 11pm. And as I say, at 6pm a fire was hitting Marysville.

The Murrindindi fire started just before 3pm when the wind was still Northerly. Yes perhaps spotting from this fire hit Narbethong, and perhaps possible that it hit Marysville. But keep in mind, the fire that hit Marysville came in over the range from the south.

Dunno old mate, and we never will. But every now and then, particularly on an anniversary, you start to think again. You pull out the maps and look at it all over again. All we can wish is that something like this never happens again, but fire is a big part of living in Australia - Black Friday, Ash Wednesday, Black Saturday, just to name some. Cheers.

Gday Phoenix 76
Mate you raise some very valid points that not only make sense but leave me scratching my head!
I was always under the belief that what was known as the Kilmore East Fire traveled through and either spotted or as some theories suggest an apparent electrical conductor either broke or exploded around the murrindindi area ? Please correct me if Im wrong but wasnt this the same area that the authorities originally thought it was started by arson ? And when this all happened the Kilmore East Fire and Marysville Fire was dubbed the Kinglake Complex. Phoenix Im scratching my head as Im typing this as some things just dont add up :N: I did a little bit of research when I first read your post outlining you not being able to work out how, and like you I couldnt find an answer that corresponds with the theories you have put forward :N: :N:
You really do have me intrigued and I might have to try and dig a bit deeper if possible and try to get some factual answers.
But if you have already researched and drawn a blank then maybe youre right in saying we might never know!

 

[silver]

They would have been able to tell if an electrical conductor either broke or exploded even after the fire went through.
they can tell after an accident whether the lights were on or off in a car when they get smashed up using forensics. Maybe the power company has an actual report on that particular electrical conductor tucked away in archive's..... that's all I got.

 

[Redfin]

10 years on - a report by Four Corners.
[video=480,360]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3srxqF2Y5bo[/video]

 

[reynard]

Thanks for sharing this redfin i have not seen the program and it is very humbling. We were just over the range near warburton and were very fortunate to be spared, even still we were rained opon with ash but luckily non of it was still live. I had to go up to Maryville just after it was reopened to do some jobs and couldn't shake the haunted feeling of the place ,and still carn,t.we live in boolarra now another place that suffered terribly at that time, it makes you wonder what the a__holes who light these fires get out of it. I know what i would like them to get.
Jim

 

[RM Outback]

I don't know alot about the Murrindindi fire but was heavily involved in the Kilmore East fire. From memory they joined on the Sunday or Monday. As for the winds and weather on that day I hope to never see it again. As for fire behaviour in any large fires (such as a crowning fire) they can create their own weather system from within the seat of the fire causing it to behave erratically and change direction in an instant locally at the fire front. It's not an answer to the above questions /scenarios just an explanation for those who haven't experienced such fires. Large fires such as these draw in air /oxygen and from my experience it's amplified in mountain and heavily timbered type topography. The weather on Black Saturday was the perfect storm for any fire to take hold and only be managed once that weather system ceased. My wife Kate was on our tanker 2# situated on the east side of the Hume Hwy opposite the pine plantation south of Saunders Rd where the fire started. The flames from the pine plantation were 100 metres high and as hot and dry as it was the fire created a weather system that dropped rain /moisture on to them while they were trying to find safe ground. It might cause some of you to raise an eye brough or two but as true as I'm typing this I don't doubt Kate's recollection one bit and those of the crew she was with.

The times quoted in Redfins post aren't accurate imo from memory however it is how I recall the spread and change of direction.

 

[Phoenix76]

Thanks for that Redfin. Like Reynard I haven't seen that footage before. The query on the times by RM Outback is possibly explained with daylight savings time. All my info talks about Marysville being hit around 6pm, the 4 Corners program talks about 7pm, so that might be it.

I've just spent 1/2 hour looking at maps again, and perhaps I can see where the fire at Narbethong spotted across Mt Gordon and started a fire up on Kings Rd. Kings Rd is approximately south of Marysville township and would look to be in line with a fire coming down from Paradise Plains. Paradise Plains is up beyond Keppels Lookout and runs to the top of the range. Over the range it is all MMBW catchment area.

RM is quite correct when he talks about these fires creating their own weather pattern. Totally unpredictable. They create their own winds which can be almost like a twister. I know that looking from Falls Rd south towards Kings Rd, you are basically looking in the direction of Paradise Plains.

By all accounts the Kilmore East Fire and the Murrindindi Fire did join up in two places. One east of Buxton and the other south of Narbethong but on the southern side of the range. However that had nothing to do with the Marysville fire. I can't find it for now but there was a firey from Marysville who drove up Mt Gordon, and when he looked back towards Marysville he shat himself when he saw what was bearing down on Marysville from the direction of Paradise. He hightailed it back to Marysville to raise the alarm. So perhaps the spot fire that started up around Kings Rd had spotted from something coming down from the Plains.

Anyway mates, we will never know, but the old brainbox just keeps working at it. Cheers

 

[Licking windows]

Hi Redfin
I tilt my hat and say thank you for taking the time to add the video :Y: and like Reynard I havent seen it till now and it was indeed humbling and moving 8.( thanks again Redfin :Y:
Rm I dont doubt Kates recollections of the day one little bit mate, as going through what you described is something that nobody would EVER forget :N: how scary for her being on the truck and Im sure you were at your witts end worrying about her also :N:
The report that Redfin shared leaves a few questions unanswered ! The video stated it was arson and Phoenix 76 stated the same and that the suspect was investigated and cleared! So do they still believe it was deliberate? Or are they going with the power conductor theory? I dont now how to put the information I found regarding this up on here but if you search how did the Marysville Fire start you can read it there :Y:

 

[Mick Cov]

I remember the day well.We lost our home in Flowerdale,had only been there for 13 months.One neighbour in our street lost his life.I must have been one of the lucky ones as the fires never had a negative effect on me,Once we had temporarily relocated,the bank quickly sorted us out and when we got payed out we payed cash for another house in Flowerdale and also bought a house in Melbourne.A couple of close mates in Kinglake had a much tougher time of it,lost their home but jumped into a neighbours pool to save their lives.

 

[RM Outback]

Hi Redfin
I tilt my hat and say thank you for taking the time to add the video :Y: and like Reynard I havent seen it till now and it was indeed humbling and moving 8.( thanks again Redfin :Y:
Rm I dont doubt Kates recollections of the day one little bit mate, as going through what you described is something that nobody would EVER forget :N: how scary for her being on the truck and Im sure you were at your witts end worrying about her also :N:
The report that Redfin shared leaves a few questions unanswered ! The video stated it was arson and Phoenix 76 stated the same and that the suspect was investigated and cleared! So do they still believe it was deliberate? Or are they going with the power conductor theory? I dont now how to put the information I found regarding this up on here but if you search how did the Marysville Fire start you can read it there :Y:

Yeah I was worried but at the same time didn't have time to worry as strange as that sounds. I can't explain it maybe a virtue of faith knowing she was with the crew she was with on the day :Y: I wasn't going to comment in this thread but I'm glad I have, after reading others experiences it's allowed me to say what I have. For different reasons I do find it troubling at times but this thread has helped me :Y: thanks to all who have shared and understand.